Billionz Multi-Asset Weekly Newsletter
Markets Stay Resilient, Upside Breakout Remains in Focus
Global Developments:
All three major central banks i.e. Fed, BoJ and BoE kept rates unchanged this week. However, there were hawkish dissents in all three committees
US 10y yield is very close to this year’s high. The Dollar index however plunged this week despite higher US yields as USDJPY cratered on BoJ intervention.
US-Iran war situation remains tense with no clear resolution in sight. According to US officials, US could be striking Iran again, as soon as this weekend itself. There are a lot of moving parts such as Trump wanting an off ramp, mounting pressure from Trump’s allies to end war with mid terms around, questions around who is calling the shots in Iran (senior IRGC members are jostling for control), diplomatic pressure from Israel to escalate and from Saudi to deescalate, dwindling US missile capacity in Gulf, Iran’s control over SoH.
Domestic Equities:
- Nifty50 valuations remain reasonable at 20.4x trailing and 18.7x forward earnings, indicating expectations of continued earnings growth over the next 12 months
- Midcap and smallcap valuations continue to trade at a premium to the Nifty50, suggesting investors remain optimistic on growth prospects despite relatively richer valuations.
- More than half way through the Q1 earnings season, 54% companies have missed while 46% have beat earnings estimates. Industrials and Infra have shown strong earnings growth while IT and Metals have missed.
- FPIs invested net USD 2.1bn in domestic equities in July
- Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) remained net buyers during the week, investing ₹5,950 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) also extended support with net inflows of ₹5,388 crore, reflecting sustained institutional confidence in Indian equities.
- Redington, Balkrishna Industries and Kaynes Technology were the week’s top gainers, while J&K Bank, Gravita India and Nuvama Wealth were the top losers.
Below are the graphical representations for how key benchmark indices performed this week& how sectoral indices performed this week:
Fixed Income
Global Rates:
- Global bond yields were mixed this week, with US and European yields moving higher, while yields in Australia and parts of Asia softened
India Rates & Flows:
- India’s 10-year G-Sec yield rose 6bps to 6.84%, while OIS rates eased, reflecting expectations of a supportive domestic liquidity environment.
Real Estate
- Institutional investments in Indian real estate rose 16% QoQ to USD 1.9 billion in Q2 2026, reflecting sustained investor confidence across commercial real estate
- Strong domestic capital inflows, increasing investments in office and data centre assets, and India’s resilient economic growth continued to support the sector’s long-term outlook
IPOs
- India’s IPO pipeline remains strong, with 175 companies holding SEBI approval and another 70 awaiting clearance, indicating healthy primary market activity.
- While the IPO outlook remains robust, companies are becoming more valuation-conscious, as seen in Zepto’s decision to defer its public listing amid pricing expectations.
Private Equity & Venture Capital
- Global investors continue to deepen their India exposure, with Exposition Ventures exploring an India-focused VC fund while raising capital from Indian LPs for its new US fund
- Mahindra Electric secured fresh investments from Lightrock, IFC and NIIF at a USD 1.1 billion valuation, highlighting continued investor confidence in India’s electric vehicle ecosystem
Commodities
Commodities were broadly weaker during the week, led by a sharp decline in crude oil prices as easing geopolitical tensions weighed on energy markets. Industrial metals remained resilient with copper and aluminium posting modest gains, while precious metals traded largely range-bound.
What’s New in the World of Wealth Management
Globally, the US IPO market is also witnessing renewed momentum as August opens with multiple biotech listings, a regional bank offering, and heightened investor focus on SpaceX following its landmark public debut. While the broader IPO environment remains constructive, investors are becoming increasingly selective, prioritizing profitability, growth visibility, and reasonable valuations amid evolving market conditions. Wealth managers continued increasing allocations towards alternative investments, including private equity, private credit, REITs, and infrastructure funds, to enhance portfolio diversification. Global family offices continued expanding exposure to India, attracted by the country’s resilient economic growth, improving corporate earnings, and long-term structural opportunities.
Our Views: What we Like?
Equities: It has been a mixed earnings season so far. Nifty50 volatility has dropped as index is stuck in a 23600-24600 range. We believe the break is more likely to happen on the upside. IT has seen some value buying despite lacklustre earnings and outlook. India as an anti AI story theme is working well. Whenever this is disruption in Global AI stocks, Indian IT does well and vice versa. We are overweight IT, REITs, Chemicals and Financials in our model portfolio.
Fixed Income : Indian bonds not being included in the Bloomberg index despite recent measures to facilitate FPI investments is a setback. We expect the 10y to trade a 6.70-6.95% range for next few weeks.
Commodities: Precious metals are swaying to the Dollar theme rather than risk theme. We expect this to continue. We are bullish on base metals and precious metals. Energy prices are likely to be headline driven
FX: Dollar index we believe is still in a range. Dollar Index broadly has been in a 96-102 range since last 15 months. We expect the Rupee to be in 94.50-97 range over next few weeks.
